inessential by Brent Simmons

It Will Be Trump

The South Carolina primary is where the establishment fixes the errors of Iowa and New Hampshire. It’s Lee Atwater’s firewall.

When Buchanan threatens Dole, South Carolina shuts it down. When McCain threatens Bush, South Carolina applies the kibosh.

But is there any hope that it will function that way this time?

I don’t think so. The establishment candidates are Bush, Rubio, and Kasich. They don’t have a shot. Nor does Cruz. Trump wins South Carolina.

If that’s true, then it’s all over. If South Carolina fails — if the very primary that’s designed to toss the ball back to the establishment fails — then there’s no hope at all.

Cruz will go on to win a few states, most notably Texas. But otherwise it’s going to be Trump. He’ll get the delegates he needs, and that will be that.